Monday, February 14, 2005

Sunspots




I created the sunspot chart (still working on trying to make it larger to view) above awhile back when I was researching correlations between sunspots and historical events. As you can see (or maybe not) in the early 1600's what is known as Maunder-Minimum or "Little Ice Age" occurred. Here is little background on the Maunder Minimum,

Encyclopedia: Maunder Minimum
The Maunder Minimum is the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715 A.D., when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. It is named after the later solar astronomer E.W. Maunder who discovered the dearth of sunspots during that period by studying records from those years. During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, for example, astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to a more typical 40,000-50,000 spots.

The Maunder Mininum coincided with the middle - and coldest part - of the so-called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America, and perhaps much of the rest of the world, were subjected to bitterly cold winters. Recently published data suggests that the Sun expanded during the Maunder Minimum and its rotation slowed. At our current level of understanding of solar physics, a larger and slower Sun necessarily implies a cooler Sun that provides less heat to Earth. (Just why the Sun expands and contracts is still a mystery, although many stars do so to an equal or greater degree; see variable star.) Whether there is a causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters is the subject of ongoing debate. Some scientists believe that solar activity drives climate change more than carbon dioxide does (see global warming).

The lower solar activity during the Maunder Minimum also affected the amount of cosmic radiation reaching the Earth. The resulting change in the production of carbon-14 during that period caused an inaccuracy in radiocarbon dating until this effect was discoverd.

Other historical sunspot minima have been detected either directly or by the analysis of carbon-14 in ice cores; these include the Sporer Minimum (1450-1540), and less markedly the Dalton Minimum (1790-1820). In total there seem to have been 18 periods of sunspot minima in the last 8,000 years, and studies indicate that the sun currently spends up to a quarter of its time in these minima.

So what's the big deal, after all it happened over 300 years ago, right? Well let's start by asking a few questions. What could have caused the decrease or complete lack of sunspots? Could it happen again? When? In her articles Independence Day and Jupiter, Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, and the Return of the Mongols, author Laura Knight-Jadczyk discusses possible explanations for the Maunder Minimum and recent solar activity.

This particular subject is a good example of how studying the past may lead to a better understanding of what may happen in the future. Supposedly, indications are we should be near a solar minimum, but apparently someone forgot to inform the sun. There has been so much talk about the suns activity over the last few years that scientists are in a tizzy trying to determine what will happen in the near future. If your interested, you can find an interesting interview at Earth Files.com which expands on this issue.

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